Predicting 2010

My predictions for 2010:

In technology:

  • Android will gain enough market share to pose a serious threat to Apple.  Blackberry, while still relevant in the enterprise, will quickly lose on the consumer side of the market.
  • Because of Android, and to a lesser extent Blackberry, Apple will be forced to make changes to the iPhone…
  1. They will end AT&T exclusivity.  Unfortunately the only other carrier that will offer the iPhone will be T-Mobile because they will not produce a CDMA version.  T-Mo’s 3G network, will also disappoint iPhone users.  Verizon, Sprint, US Cell, et. al. won’t offer it for a few more years when their LTE networks, and the 4G iPhone become available.
  2. They will be forced to abandon the App approval process, thereby opening up the iPhone platform to more developers in response to the sharp increase in available Android apps & Cydia apps for Jailbroken iPhones.
  3. They will abandon the notification system in the iPhone OS in favor of true background apps.  In typical Apple fashion, though, this will only be available to people who own 3GS and the new 3GS+ iPhones, leaving 2G and 3G users behind.
  • The iSlate will be a disappointment.  It will feature a “new” OS that won’t run any iPhone OS or Mac OS apps.
  • A revised Apple TV, Roku and Boxee boxes will gain market share and start to eat away at the cable companies, especially after the FCC releases new guidelines for set-top boxes.  The pending merger of NBC & Comcast will become meaningless by the end of the year.

In politics:

  • The FCC will pass net neutrality.  It will be completely not what AT&T et al want and will actually provide reasonable consumer protections.
  • After passing NN, the FCC will turn to abolishing consumption based billing for internet access as they reclassify ISPs as “common carriers.”
  • To spur rural broadband build-outs, the FCC will begin the process to force the separation of ISP from the lines coming into the house.  This will allow third parties to build the rural networks without telco intervention.   Congress will pass legislation to provide these companies subsidies, and money from the USF, to build the networks.
  • …however, the FCC will fuck up the last two royally.
  • We will see countless delays in the ENDA, and repeals of DoMA and DADT.  Because the Republicans will gain a few seats in the Senate we’ll see them crammed through and passed in the legislative session between the elections in November and when the new members take over.
  • Health Reform will pass both chambers of congress after going through conference committee.  Unfortunately, the bill will look a lot like the Senate’s version of the bill, will contain Stupak, and no public option.
  • However, in exchange for the public option in the bill, House Democrats will demand, and get, the following:
  1. A mid 2010 start date for the mandates that drop pre-existing conditions, demand equal coverage, etc.
  2. An immediate start to the “exchanges” by utilizing the existing exchange that is set up for Federal employees
  3. A version of Medicare-for-all in the exchange, that is basically the public option they dropped from the bill
  • On the plus side of all of this, there will be a swift rift that forms in the Republican party in this election cycle dividing the Beck/Palin supporters with the rest of the Party, Dems will make substantial gains in the House of Representatives, and the Republican party will be severely wounded as they go into the primary season for the 2012 Presidential elections.

Entertainment:

  • We will see at least one television network go bust by the end of 2010.
  • Or it will decide to drop it’s affiliates and go direct-to-cable
  • Leno-in-primetime will not be renewed.  NBC will trade out the 10pm hour to affiliates for a 5th hour of Today.
  • Most NBC stations will move their 11pm news up to 10pm. Some will expand it to 1:35, as NBC will keep the start time of Conan at 11:35.

Personally:

  • I will either change jobs or finally get my own production house off the ground.